Decline in cross-border travel from British Columbia to the United States recorded in July, albeit at a slower pace compared to previous months
In a recent report published by the Border Policy Research Institute, it has been revealed that the decline in Canadian travel to the United States at key British Columbia border crossings has persisted in 2024 and 2025.
The data shows a 28% decrease in southbound vehicle crossings at major points of entry near Metro Vancouver in July 2025 compared to the same month in the previous year. This marks the sixth consecutive month of declining traffic at these border crossings, indicating a significant shift in travel patterns.
The economic impact on border-area businesses, particularly duty-free stores, has been substantial. These establishments rely heavily on Canadian shoppers crossing into the U.S., and the reduced travel demand has taken a toll on their revenues.
Statistics Canada's data reveals a 36.9% decline in Canadian resident return trips by automobile from the U.S. in July 2025 compared to a year earlier. This sustained decline over several months since 2024 is linked to reduced travel sentiment towards the U.S.
The decline in Canadian travel by automobile, which accounted for 75% of Canadian outbound travel in 2024, is a pronounced shift away from cross-border travel by road. While certain border points like Blaine, Washington, saw increased bus passengers, most major crossing points experienced declines in bus passenger counts in early 2025.
The ongoing trade war between Canada and the U.S. appears to be a contributing factor to the decline. Canadians have faced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, and steep new duties on softwood lumber in the U.S. These tariffs have likely deterred some would-be visitors from entering the U.S.
In addition to the trade tensions, the decline in Canadian travel was less steep in July compared to previous months, suggesting a gradual improvement in travel sentiment.
Meanwhile, other news from Canada includes the return of Taco Fest to Toronto, the requirement for B.C. schools to be equipped with AEDs and naloxone, a jobs report showing a loss of 41,000 jobs in July but an unemployment rate holding steady at 6.9%, and the continued uncertainty surrounding the trade war between Canada and the U.S.
References:
[1] Border Policy Research Institute (2025). Decline in Canadian Travel to U.S. Persists. Retrieved from https://www.borderpolicyresearch.org/decline-in-canadian-travel-to-us-persists/
[2] Canadian Border Services Agency (2025). Bus Passenger Counts at Major Crossing Points. Retrieved from https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/data/passenger-passagers/2025/bus-autobus-eng.html
[3] Statistics Canada (2025). Canadian Resident Return Trips by Automobile from the U.S. Retrieved from https://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/250818/dq250818a-eng.htm
[4] Tourism Industry Association of Canada (2024). Shift Away from Cross-Border Travel by Road. Retrieved from https://www.tiac-aitc.ca/en/research-and-insights/shift-away-from-cross-border-travel-by-road/
[5] Canadian Border Services Agency (2025). Canadian Returnees from U.S. Locations. Retrieved from https://www.cbsa-asfc.gc.ca/data/passenger-passagers/2025/returnees-retournants-eng.html
The decline in Canadian travel to the United States, evidenced by a 28% decrease in southbound vehicle crossings at major points of entry near Metro Vancouver in July 2025, has also had implications on health and lifestyle, as the reduced travel demand has negatively affected duty-free stores and other border-area businesses. Due to this, Canadians might need to reconsider their travel lifestyle and seek alternatives to maintain their health through finding local options for products unavailable in Canada. Additionally, the escalating trade war between Canada and the U.S., marked by 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum and steep new duties on softwood lumber, has been a contributing factor to the decline in travel sentiment, which could lead to changes in travel plans and potentially prompt some Canadians to explore new destinations that are tariff-free, thereby causing a shift in travel patterns.
