Red River Delta Braces for Urban Inundation in Late 2025 Due to High Likelihood of La Niña
The Red River Delta faces a significant threat of urban inundation in late 2025 due to a high likelihood of La Niña, according to forecasts. This phenomenon could coincide with heavy rains and late-season typhoons, putting the central cee region at severe risk.
La Niña, a climate pattern marked by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, is expected to occur between October and December 2025 with a 70-71 percent probability. This increases the frequency of heavy rainfall months by 4.6 times compared to El Niño phases, posing a significant threat to the regions of Vietnam, particularly provinces from Thanh Hoa to Khanh Hoa, which are prone to flash floods and landslides due to short and steep rivers.
To mitigate losses, enhanced hydrometeorological forecasting, coordinated reservoir operations, and prepositioning of emergency resources are crucial. Multiple meteorological agencies, including the Philippines' DOST-PAGASA and the World Meteorological Organisation, have already declared a heightened alert status for La Niña by September 2025. The Mekong Delta may also face compound flooding due to rising Mekong River levels overlapping with high tides and monsoon-driven sea level rise, presenting additional challenges for disaster management.
La Niña is expected to ease to 54-70 percent through the winter and drop below 55 percent in early 2026, suggesting a short La Niña cycle. However, the region must remain vigilant and prepared, as La Niña could increase rainfall in the central cee region by 9-19 percent compared to the multi-year average during the peak flood season. Coordinated efforts and advanced preparations are vital to reduce potential losses and ensure the safety of the communities in the affected areas.
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